| Grain exports expected to be strong in 2010 |
 |
 |
 |
| Local Content - Agriculture |
| Written by Trevor Busch |
| Wednesday, 13 January 2010 17:26 |
|
Grain exports for the CWB’s 2009-10 crop year are expected to exceed earlier mid-summer projections by two million tonnes, which should help drive total export numbers to their highest level in 10 years. In the CWB’s annual Grain Marketing Report, which should be arriving in producers’ mailboxes this week, the grain-marketing organization has set an export target of 18.7 million tonnes. This comes close to matching the target set in 1999-2000, when total exports reached 19.2 million tonnes. According to John Lyons, a spokesperson for the CWB, fears of an early frost were put to rest by the unseasonably warm, record-high temperatures experienced throughout the Prairies in September. This helped enhance quality and yield beyond what was initially expected. “Forecasts are revised on an ongoing basis. Since the summer, our crop has come in much better than anticipated thanks to such great weather in September, and we now know more about the harvest outcomes in other areas of the world. September's weather is the major factor that has led to increased quality and quantity of the crop. July and August provided dismal growing conditions, and there was a very serious threat of a killing frost in August.” This year’s export program consists of 13.5 million tonnes of wheat, 3.5 million tonnes of durum and 1.7 million tonnes of barley. Total barley exports include up to 1.3 million tonnes of bulk malting barley. Wheat prices have seen a steady decline since the peak of 2008, due mainly to oversupply and fierce competition. This year’s crop is expected to have lower-than-average protein content, which could effect pricing. “Protein content is related to growing conditions,” said Lyons. “Overall, farmers have seen a very successful harvest, given the extremely poor conditions faced in July and August. The quality and quantity of the crop affect marketing prospects. The CWB is pleased to be moving ahead with a strong export program notable for its high-quality grain.” Despite renewed positive projections, global marketing factors outside the control of the CWB may place downward pressure on prices. Durum is facing an overabundance of supply, with world production now estimated by the International Grains Council (IGC) at a near-record 40 million tonnes, while North Africa, which usually imports much of the world’s durum crop, experienced good domestic crops, significantly reducing import demand. “For malting barley, increased imports into China are expected, and recent quality downgrades in the Australian crop could help lift prices,” said Lyons. However, wheat exports are facing abundant supply. Durum is facing an overabundance of supply in the world and reduced demand from key importers such as North Africa. Many challenges face the marketing of this year's crop.” |
